Industry veteran says the biggest misconception in Pinellas County real estate isn’t about hurricanes or insurance – it’s sellers refusing to accept that post-pandemic pricing was an aberration, not the new normal.
In Pinellas County’s residential real estate market, the main obstacle to sales isn’t hurricane damage, insurance costs, or even high interest rates. According to one industry veteran, the real problem is seller psychology. Across the Tampa Bay region, property owners remain attached to the record-high prices they saw during the post-COVID boom, unwilling to recognize that those conditions were temporary and not the new standard for home values.
Mark Hartman, team leader at Charles Rutenberg Realty and a Tampa Bay real estate professional for over 20 years, says this outdated pricing mindset is the most common misconception he encounters. “The biggest misconception is that a lot of sellers are still caught in the mindset of how the prices were after COVID,” Hartman says. “After COVID, we had such a pulse in Florida because the inventory was so low, the property value drove up sky high.”
That period saw properties selling within a day of listing, multiple cash offers above the asking price, and buyers waiving inspections and agreeing to appraisal-gap contingencies. For sellers who experienced that environment, today’s market feels like a steep decline. But Hartman insists what they’re seeing now is actually a return to historically normal market dynamics after an extraordinary, short-lived spike.
The Post-COVID Anomaly: Cash Buyers and Zero Inventory
To understand why seller expectations remain unrealistic, Hartman points to the unique circumstances of the post-COVID boom. “We had buyers coming into Florida with cash in hand that were not looking under the hood,” he explains. “They were waiving inspections and, in many cases, they were signing appraisal gaps.”
This frenzy was driven by a combination of record-low interest rates—between two and three percent—along with a surge of buyers migrating from other states and minimal inventory. Homes that typically took months to sell were selling in days, often sparking bidding wars.
Hartman recalls advising buyers at the time that specific financing options were essentially useless. “There were buyers back then, trying to use an FHA loan, who came to our team. I would tell them, ‘Look, you’re not going to find anything. You’re competing with cash buyers, and the inventory’s so low, you’re going to have to go out of Florida if you want to use an FHA loan.’”
Many sellers now believe those peak prices represent their property’s actual value. But Hartman stresses that those values were the result of rare circumstances that have since faded and are unlikely to return.
The New Reality: More Inventory, Fewer Buyers, Higher Costs
Today, the market is fundamentally different. “We’re at a point now because we have such increased inventory and a lower demand for buyers, because of the high interest rates, also, and other factors like high insurance, there aren’t as many buyers right now,” Hartman says.
Interest rates are now more than double what they were during the pandemic lows. Insurance costs have climbed, especially in coastal areas. New condominium regulations have increased monthly fees and special assessments. The flood of out-of-state, cash-rich buyers has slowed.
Yet many sellers still price their homes as if these changes haven’t happened. “Many of them have not adjusted their pricing yet,” Hartman observes. “They’re still trying to get those peak prices that everybody was enjoying right after COVID. So that’s probably the biggest misconception right now in our market.”
This gap between asking prices and what buyers are willing to pay has led to listings sitting on the market for months and, eventually, price reductions. Sellers are gradually learning that the buyers who once paid post-COVID prices are no longer present in the market.
The Choice: Adjust Now or Wait It Out
Hartman separates sellers into two groups: those who need to sell now and those who can afford to wait. “If they want to sell now, they need to be realistic for sure,” he says. “Now, if they don’t need to sell now, they can wait it out, because markets do recover.”
However, he cautions that waiting carries risks and uncertain timelines. “Whether that’s going to be 24 months, 36 months, or longer, we don’t know,” Hartman says—sellers who wait face ongoing carrying costs, lost opportunities, and the possibility of further market declines.
More importantly, Hartman warns that expecting a return to the post-COVID market is likely a mistake. “It will not likely get back to the same conditions that we had under COVID,” he says. “Prices may get back into that area, but it’s all going to be based on supply and demand and inventory.”
Even if values eventually approach 2022 levels, the market factors that drove those prices—extremely low inventory, buyers waiving contingencies, intense bidding wars—are unlikely to reappear. Any future appreciation will result from different supply-and-demand dynamics.
The Broader Market Lesson
What’s happening in Pinellas County illustrates a typical pattern in real estate: sellers are often slow to adjust their expectations after a market peak. Many internalize the highest price their property could have fetched as its permanent value, even if that price was only possible under exceptional, short-lived conditions.
Hartman notes that this lag in seller psychology creates opportunities for buyers who understand the current market and can recognize when a listing is finally priced to sell. But it also frustrates sellers who wait too long to accept that the market has changed.
The question for Pinellas County homeowners is how long they are willing to wait for a return to conditions that may never come—and whether they are prepared to accept that the post-COVID surge was a rare exception, not the start of a new era in home values.